Irish Central Bank Lifts Growth Forecasts

Irish Central Bank Lifts Growth Forecasts

Reflecting the relatively high proportion of goods imports which come from the United Kingdom, pass-through from the post-referendum sterling weakness has contributed to downward pressure on goods price inflation, which is persistently negative and is largely offsetting higher prices for services, keeping overall HICP inflation close to zero.

An also optimistic central government this week forecast Irish growth of 4.3 percent this year and 3.5 percent next.

The Central Bank has raised its economic growth forecasts for this year and next, but cautioned that Brexit uncertainty remained a risk for the country.

Gross domestic product would grow by 4.9 percent this year and by 3.9 percent in 2018, the central bank predicted, up from July forecasts of 4.5 percent and 3.6 percent respectively.

The bank said its main measure of domestic economic activity, modified domestic demand, would grow 4.2 percent in 2017 and 3.9 percent in 2018, down from earlier forecasts of 4.5 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively.

"The Irish economy has performed strongly this year although projected growth in headline GDP seems likely to overstate the strength of underlying developments", the bank said. The growth in full-time employment is particularly notable and outpaces overall employment growth as part-time work increasingly becomes full-time.

The Central Bank's chief economist Gabriel Fagan said that the impact of Brexit so far has been "fairly muted" and mainly felt through the effects of a weaker pound.

Gabriel Fagan, the chief economist at the Central Bank, said that if trade between the European Union and the United Kingdom reverted to World Trade Organisation rules then it would lead to 40,000 fewer jobs...

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