US Soybean Crop Expected to be a Record

Nebraska corn crop down 1 percent from 2016

Corn, though, was little changed, trading near last session's one-month low ahead of a key USA government report expected to indicate higher crop yields in the United States. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 171.8 bushels per acre, up 1.9 bushels from the September forecast but down 2.8 bushels from 2016.

For soybeans, the average yield estimate is 49.5 bushels per acre vs. the average trade estimate of 49.9 bushels per acre and the USDA's September estimate of 49.9. The projected price range for season average corn price remained at $2.80 to $3.60 a bushel.

USDA trimmed soybean estimates, taking.04 bushels from last month and pegging the crop at an average of 49.5 bushels per acre and total production at 4.43 billion bushels.

The U.S. wheat ending stocks were estimated at 960 million bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 944 million and the USDA's previous estimate of 933 million. Analysts expect the government to raise its estimates of the US soybean yield and harvested acreage.

Traders expect the agency to raise its estimate of the USA corn harvest in the reports. "That's my way of gauging the surprise to UDSA and they didn't [react], but there's a pretty wide range on prices", he added.

In a report released Thursday, based on October 1 conditions, the area to be harvested for grain, at 9.3 million acres, is down 3 percent from a year ago. "Yield reports and harvest progress will be closely watched when the skies clear".

Rains expected in the U.S.

Several factors led to USDA's smaller projected ending soybean stocks for 2017-18.

Meanwhile, the USDA estimated Corn stocks at 2.34-B bu, compared with its prior estimate of 2.335-B bu last month.

The USDA raised its forecast of global 2017/18 wheat ending stocks to 268.13 million tonnes, up from 263.14 million in September and above even the highest in a Reuters poll of trade estimates.

"430 million bushels by itself is not a wildly bullish number", he says. Soybeans were up 0.4 percent to $9.69-1/2 a bushel. "There's some fear yields could shrink more".

CBOT wheat turned higher at times, supported by strength in soybean and corn futures. January soybean futures were 26 1/2¢ higher at $10.02 1/2. December soy oil futures closed $0.13 higher at 33.28¢ per pound.

December soy meal futures finished $11.40 per short ton higher at $326.30.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.71 lower, the US dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 21 points lower.

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