US Cash Grains-Corn, soybean basis steady-firm as futures dip

Mike McGinnis

Harvested acres are expected to be up for all three crops, but average yield is forecast to be down after a growing season plagued by drought.

Slightly lower production is not expected to make a dent in grain prices, however.

Terminal corn bids, U.S. No. 2 yellow, price paid for truck deliver, included: Kansas City, $3.10 3/4 to $3.15 3/4, down 1/4 cents; Minneapolis, unavailable; southern Iowa, $3.14 3/4 to $3.17 3/4, up 3/4 to down 1/4 cents; Omaha, $3.05 to $3.08, unchanged.

"Farmers have had thin to negative margins over the last few years", said University of Minnesota grain marketing economist Ed Usset.

Crop Production report released Thursday shows Iowa corn production is now forecast at 2.54 billion bushels. "We've got the same bearish cloud hanging over this market". It might take years for world wheat stocks to decrease significantly.

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service's forecast for soybean production in Minnesota followed a similar pattern to corn. December wheat delivery rose 2.5 cents, or 0.58 percent, to 4.315 dollars per bushel. Nationally, the average corn yield is forecast at just over 175 bushels per acre, which would be a new all-time high.

Minnesota is ranked third in soybean production, after IL and Iowa, with a crop value of $3.6 billion in 2016. The CBOT December contract stayed inside of Friday's trading range but held above last week's contract low of $3.40-3/4.

"It was not as consistent a year across the state", he said, comparing weather in 2017 to last year. "But it's still a darn good crop".

South American weather will have a more direct influence on price determination beginning in late November, and amid the development of La Nina and developing dryness in Argentina, ongoing sideways trading is expected.

January soybeans were down 2.75 cents at 9.8425 US dollars per bushel as of 1610 GMT in the morning trading, December corn was down 0.75 cent at 3.4275 dollars, while December wheat was down 7.25 cents at 4.2425 dollars. If the predictions hold, this would be Iowa's second highest yield and production on record behind previous year.

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