Monsoon will be Normal This Year, Says Met Department

Meteorology Department warns of thunder rain and strong wind

The prediction stands at a moderate error estimated of plus-minus 5 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). In 2016, good monsoon has led to record production of oilseeds, food grains and also triggered a 4.2 per cent agriculture growth.

Rainfall below 90 per cent of the average is considered deficient, above normal at 105-110 per cent, and excessive above 110 per cent.

The India Meteorological Department, IMD will issue its first official forecast for 2018 southwest monsoon rains in New Delhi today. The department predicted 97% rainfall of long period average.

IMD in October 2017 said that while 72 per cent of the total area of the country received normal rainfall, 13 per cent area got excess rainfall and 15 per cent deficient seasonal rainfall.

IMD will update its forecast in early June with numbers on month and region-wise distribution of the monsoon.

As regards Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon, which is the other important factor, he said, at present neutral IOD conditions are prevailing and recent forecasts indicate that a weak negative IOD conditions may develop during the middle of the monsoon season and this has been factored into the overall forecast.

As per the IMD, there is 42 percent possibility of normal rainfall and 12 percent possibility of heavy rainfall - it means the country can witness some rainfall in the country.

IMD's SEFS model for the April forecast uses the following 5 predictors that require data upto March.

Despite "normal" forecast, the monsoon can be affected by the El Niño conditions. Past year also, there was a normal monsoon forecast by the IMD.

India is likely to receive normal monsoon rains in 2018, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, raising the possibility of higher farm and economic growth in Asia's third-biggest economy, where half of the farmland lacks irrigation.

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