Forecasters say hurricane to kind off Mexico's Pacific coast

Affable aware and in control Jonathan Lord Flagler County's new emergency chief brings vast state and local experience to the job

Six hours later at 5 a.m. EDT on June 6, tropical depression 1E strengthened into Tropical Storm Aletta, the first of the Eastern Pacific Ocean hurricane season.

"Inland flooding, freshwater flooding, is taking over as the key mortality risk now associated with these storms", Kossin said.

Is Hurricane Harvey a preview?

Dr Kossin came to his conclusion by studying the tropical cyclone record, which spans from 1949-2016. That means a storm that may already hold more moisture will have time to drop more of it in each spot.

"Tropical cyclones are just carried along by the wind, so it makes sense", Kossin says.

Hurricane Harvey was estimated to have caused $125 billion in damages, second to Hurricane Katrina's $161 billion.

Why are storms slowing down?

Global weather research has revealed Australia has some of the slackest tropical cyclones.

There is considerable evidence that global summertime circulation patterns in the atmosphere are slowing as a result of global warming.

Researchers claim that as the planet's poles heat up, pressure gradients around the world are changing, reducing the winds that push on these storms.

Kossin acknowledged problems with pre-1970s data but said that most of it deals with how strong storms are.

But Kossin, in his paper, writes that he wouldn't expect big changes in his results due to different means of measurement, since "estimates of tropical-cyclone position should be comparatively insensitive to such changes".

Recent research also found that "blocking" of the jet stream can lead to extreme weather events such as hurricanes and floods.

Trenberth points out that this study did not account for these natural cycles, which he said could be behind much of the observed trend. It was also based exclusively on observations and didn't use computer models to simulate the Earth with and without warming.

Scientist James Kossin said as little as a 10 per cent slowdown could double local rainfall and flooding impacts caused by 1C of warming. "We'll need more formal attribution studies to disentangle these factors".

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