Will Democrats win midterm elections? Latest results for United States midterms

Susan Walsh  APPresident Donald Trump speaks during a rally in Estero Fla. Oct. 31 2018

"They will be emboldened because if the Democrats take it by a narrow margin, there will be deep divisions within the Democratic Party".

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and other GOP leaders have also been blaming Social Security and Medicare as sources of the ballooning deficit, suggesting cuts and other reforms could be coming if they hold control. Tuesday's elections are the first major ones to take place in the USA since Russian Federation targeted state election systems during the 2016 presidential race and ran disinformation campaigns with divisive content on Facebook and Twitter.

The president, who has used the bulk of his Twitter postings in the past week to remind people to vote and to endorse specific candidates, was uncharacteristically quiet after returning from the Missouri rally early Tuesday morning. Failure would leave them unable to check president Trump's power.

An 86% chance is not a sure thing, but it's a strong indicator of the most likely outcome.

The Obama-Trump voters sit between the two parties' bases on a host of issues. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg, who advocates gun control, poured millions into House races for Democrats, offsetting the big-dollar spending to save Republicans by the Congressional Leadership Fund, which is aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan. Democrats lead among women, younger voters, and black voters. The news since then probably reinforced these views - in particular, the president's renegotiation of the Nafta treaty, which fulfills one of his promises to this group, and his opposition to the caravan of Central American migrants, which reinforces another.

The president spoke to reporters on the airport tarmac here alongside Donnelly's opponent, Republican Mike Braun, ensuring he would get his picture on TV and in the papers. The May 2018 Voter Study Group survey found that only 41% meant to back Republicans for Congress despite their very high level of support for Trump.

Their votes are crucial to Democratic hopes to retake the Senate and sweep to victory in the House.

"If they lose this November, the civil war inside the Democratic Party is going to consume them for years and is going to make Donald Trump's re-election in 2020 a forgone conclusion", he said.

In Chattanooga, Tennessee, to bolster the prospects of Republican Senate candidate Marsha Blackburn, Trump once again warned that caravans of illegal immigrants are on their way to flood across the southern border.

As Election Day drew near, Democrats were increasingly confident, predicting they would pick up at least the 23 seats needed for the majority on the strength of voter enthusiasm, robust fundraising and unusually fresh candidates.

The evidence so far is mixed regarding how these voters will break.

The tax law has been particularly problematic for Republicans in New Jersey, where four of five GOP-held seats were being seriously contested.

The Senate is a different story. "Trump has hijacked the election", one senior House Republican aide tells Politico.

Nancy Pelosi, the Minority Leader of the United States House of Representatives, also agreed.

So the stakes for today's election are very high indeed, and current polling indicates that the most likely scenario is that Democrats will take back control of the House of Representatives and that Republicans will retain control of the Senate. It will draw a lot of attention, but national Democrats caution not to read too much into a loss there, because Trump won it by 15 points. The New York Timeshas partnered this cycle with Siena College to conduct an unprecedented number of polls in hot races. "This compares to the mid- to high 20s for most weeks during President Obama's a year ago in office".

If Republicans hang on to their majorities in the House and Senate after two years of protests and marches against the Trump administration, it would be a crushing blow to Democrats. Polling experts FiveThirtyEight now project that there is an 86% chance - or six in seven - that Trump will lose control of the House.

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