Thermal coal on the way out: IEA

International Energy Agency sees crunch on oil consumption

". Efficiency measures are even more important to stem oil demand growth: improvements in the efficiency of the non-electric vehicle fleet avoid over 9 million bpd of oil demand in 2040", the IEA said. "The heavy lifting on supply is led initially by the United States, but later on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) steadily increases its share of total oil supply", the report read.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol said investments of roughly $2 trillion per year will be needed to meet future energy demand.

A report by the United States -US-based International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned of potential upheavals in the global crude oil market between this year and 2020.

According to the IEA, the largest supply crunch could be expected in the oil sector, as the average level of approvals of new conventional crude oil projects over the last three years "is only half the amount necessary to balance the market out to 2025".

The Agency notes that by 2025, electricity, oil and natural gas will provide about 85% of the growth of final energy demand in nearly equal shares.

Now in its 21st edition, this year's conference was opened by the United Arab Emirate (UAE) president, Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, with the theme: "Shaping the future of the world's oil and gas industry".

In the Paris climate accord of 2015, countries including India pledged to reduce their carbon footprint and curb emissions.

"The projected emissions trend represents a major collective failure to tackle the environmental consequences of energy use".

"Crafting the right policies and proper incentives will be critical to meeting our common goals of securing energy supplies, reducing carbon emissions, improving air quality in urban centres, and expanding basic access to energy in Africa and elsewhere", he said.

Under the Paris agreement, the governments agreed to a long-term goal of maintaining the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

According to Reuters calculations, based on China's General Administration of Customs data, China has already overtaken Japan as the world's top natural gas importer. The share of coal is forecast to fall from about 40 percent today to a quarter in 2040 while renewables would grow to just over 40 percent from a quarter now.

Equally, the destination of energy investments will also need to be managed accordingly, with government policy set to play an important role. The IEA's Renewables 2018 report predicts that, over the next five years, bioenergy will account for 30% of the growth in renewable energy consumption and will become the leading renewable energy producer.

Natural gas, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), was set to become the world's second largest energy source by 2030 after coal, as big energy consumers globally sought to cut carbon emissions.

The IEA has gone so far as to state that changes to the power mix will need to be addressed with "growing urgency" across the global, which will, in turn, require market reforms, more significant investments in national grids and more prolific adoption of demand-side response, smart metering and energy storage technologies. It will also account for all of the growth in coal and nuclear, given the fuels' declining use in other parts of the world. However, the world's coal plants make up one third of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions today.

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